Beracha and Johnson Housing Market Rankings January 2025
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OXFORD, Miss. – The latest Beracha and Johnson Housing Market Rankings are out.
Report
The monthly analysis covers the nation’s largest 100 housing markets. The difference between actual average home prices in a metro and statistically modeled prices for that metro is measured. Using a history of Zillow data, statistical models for where homes prices should presently be in each metro are developed and compared to actual home prices for that same metro.
Markets currently selling above their modeled price are selling at a premium, i.e. overpriced relative to the area’s long-term pricing trend. Markets currently selling below their modeled price are selling at a discount, i.e. underpriced relative to the area’s long-term pricing trend.
The largest 100 U.S. housing markets are then ranked from highest to lowest and reported.
Top 100 U.S. Housing Market Rankings: January 2025
|
Rank |
MSA |
Premium |
|
1 |
Detroit, MI |
37.0% |
|
2 |
Las Vegas, NV |
35.0% |
|
3 |
Atlanta, GA |
33.1% |
|
4 |
Cleveland, OH |
32.8% |
|
5 |
Knoxville, TN |
32.0% |
|
6 |
Worcester, MA |
32.0% |
|
7 |
New Haven, CT |
30.5% |
|
8 |
Rochester, NY |
29.3% |
|
9 |
Charlotte, NC |
29.0% |
|
10 |
Akron, OH |
28.9% |
|
11 |
Winston, NC |
28.9% |
|
12 |
Columbus, OH |
28.0% |
|
13 |
Modesto, CA |
27.8% |
|
14 |
Greensboro, NC |
27.8% |
|
15 |
Grand Rapids, MI |
27.5% |
|
16 |
Cincinnati, OH |
27.4% |
|
17 |
Toledo, OH |
27.3% |
|
18 |
Hartford, CT |
27.2% |
|
19 |
Orlando, FL |
27.2% |
|
20 |
Miami, FL |
27.0% |
|
21 |
Memphis, TN |
26.9% |
|
22 |
Tampa, FL |
26.6% |
|
23 |
Palm Bay, FL |
26.5% |
|
24 |
Syracuse, NY |
26.0% |
|
25 |
Durham, NC |
26.0% |
|
26 |
Chattanooga, TN |
25.9% |
|
27 |
Lakeland, FL |
25.5% |
|
28 |
Albuquerque, NM |
25.5% |
|
29 |
Providence, RI |
25.4% |
|
30 |
Cape Coral, FL |
24.9% |
|
31 |
Columbia, SC |
24.7% |
|
32 |
Deltona, FL |
24.2% |
|
33 |
Bridgeport, CT |
23.8% |
|
34 |
Phoenix, AZ |
23.6% |
|
35 |
Milwaukee, WI |
23.3% |
|
36 |
Wichita, KS |
23.2% |
|
37 |
Greenville, SC |
23.1% |
|
38 |
Stockton, CA |
22.7% |
|
39 |
Kansas City, MO |
22.4% |
|
40 |
Chicago, IL |
22.2% |
|
41 |
Tulsa, OK |
22.1% |
|
42 |
Jacksonville, FL |
22.0% |
|
43 |
Boise City, ID |
22.0% |
|
44 |
Ogden, UT |
21.9% |
|
45 |
Tucson, AZ |
21.9% |
|
46 |
Charleston, SC |
21.8% |
|
47 |
Omaha, NE |
21.8% |
|
48 |
Raleigh, NC |
21.4% |
|
49 |
Bakersfield, CA |
21.2% |
|
50 |
Allentown, PA |
21.2% |
|
51 |
St. Louis, MO |
20.7% |
|
52 |
Riverside, CA |
20.7% |
|
53 |
North Port, FL |
20.7% |
|
54 |
El Paso, TX |
20.6% |
|
55 |
San Diego, CA |
20.2% |
|
56 |
Augusta, GA |
19.9% |
|
57 |
Indianapolis, IN |
19.7% |
|
58 |
Scranton, PA |
19.5% |
|
59 |
Louisville, KY |
19.4% |
|
60 |
Buffalo, NY |
19.4% |
|
61 |
Springfield, MA |
19.3% |
|
62 |
Madison, WI |
18.8% |
|
63 |
Fresno, CA |
18.7% |
|
64 |
Boston, MA |
18.4% |
|
65 |
Spokane, WA |
18.0% |
|
66 |
Nashville, TN |
18.0% |
|
67 |
Seattle, WA |
17.7% |
|
68 |
Richmond, VA |
17.5% |
|
69 |
Salt Lake City, UT |
17.0% |
|
70 |
Provo, UT |
17.0% |
|
71 |
Harrisburg, PA |
16.4% |
|
72 |
San Jose, CA |
16.1% |
|
73 |
Birmingham, AL |
15.9% |
|
74 |
Dallas, TX |
15.5% |
|
75 |
Philadelphia, PA |
15.3% |
|
76 |
Oklahoma City, OK |
14.6% |
|
77 |
Colorado Springs, CO |
14.3% |
|
78 |
Des Moines, IA |
14.0% |
|
79 |
Oxnard, CA |
14.0% |
|
80 |
Sacramento, CA |
13.7% |
|
81 |
Los Angeles, CA |
13.6% |
|
82 |
McAllen, TX |
13.4% |
|
83 |
Jackson, MS |
13.1% |
|
84 |
Minneapolis, MN |
13.0% |
|
85 |
Denver, CO |
12.2% |
|
86 |
Albany, NY |
12.2% |
|
87 |
New York, NY |
11.7% |
|
88 |
Houston, TX |
11.4% |
|
89 |
Little Rock, AR |
11.1% |
|
90 |
Virginia Beach, VA |
9.4% |
|
91 |
Pittsburgh, PA |
7.9% |
|
92 |
Baton Rouge, LA |
6.4% |
|
93 |
San Antonio, TX |
5.9% |
|
94 |
Washington, DC |
5.9% |
|
95 |
Austin, TX |
5.8% |
|
96 |
Baltimore, MD |
5.7% |
|
97 |
Portland, OR |
5.6% |
|
98 |
San Francisco, CA |
0.2% |
|
99 |
Urban Honolulu, HI |
-6.0% |
|
100 |
New Orleans, LA |
-8.2% |
Comments for author(s):
Johnson:
The most overpriced housing market currently in the U.S. is Detroit, MI. The premium score of 37.00% for Detroit indicates that the average home recently purchased in Detroit is 37% above the area’s long-term pricing trend. The metro has been hovering near the top of the rankings for some time now. Detroit is followed closely by Las Vegas, NV and Atlanta, GA at 35.00% and 33.10%, respectively.
Detroit is perhaps the most puzzling metro in the country given its tepid population growth and premium score. It is easier to understand the premium scores for Las Vegas and Atlanta given their rapid population growth.
An interesting result is found in Florida, where all nine measured metros are falling in terms of their scores with the highest ranked presently being Orlando at a 27.1% premium putting it in nineteenth nationally. Florida’s general decline in scores in the last few months suggests the state is nearing the peak of its current housing cycle.
Beracha:
Right now, homes in New Orleans, LA are trading at an 8.2% discount (score 0f -8.2%) relative to its long-term pricing trend. This score suggests that the metro might be the country’s best buy at present. However, lagging population growth could be the proximate cause of the present score.
Both researchers agree that it is time for wage increases to outpace the increase in home prices. In this environment housing can become affordable again.
By
Ken Johnson, Ph.D. and Eli Beracha, Ph.D.
Campus
Office, Department or Center
Published
January 28, 2025